"VDI Won't Change Much in 2011" - Is Network Computing Right?

Love reading Mike Fratto, editor for Network Computing - usually on the mark. He just published his "Five 2011 Predictions" which included one on VDI:

1.) Our year over year research [subscription required] will show that VDI adoption of those deploying, piloting or testing VDI won't change by more than 5 percent over 2010. 2.) Of those using, piloting or testing VDI, the percentage of organizations planning on using VDI for all users versus some users won't change by more than 2 percent. 3.) VMware will increase market share over Citrix by 10 percent. VDI has been around in some form or the other for over 10 years. It's a very mature, very stable technology. The benefits of easier management, better security controls and better user experience have always been evident. What has held back VDI, I think, is that the cost of the server and workstation hardware, licenses and OS licenses have been on par with or greater than that of stand-alone desktops. Without compelling cost savings in operations, there has been no reason to end the status quo. I don't think that changes in 2011.

Do you agree?

The prediction game is always fun. Here's my take:

1.) Storage, not so much server and OS licenses, is the biggest CAPEX issue for VDI. But there's big change happening here. New hybrid storage arrays, falling Solid State Disk (SSD) prices, solutions that let VDI be implemented with local disk, and new image sharing/desktop layering technologies are combining to deliver the necessary IOPS needed for virtual desktops, while using up to 70% less raw capacity.

2.) VDI isn't just for task workers anymore, so the types of users targeted for VDI are already expanding. The availability of solutions that offer persistent personalization - even user-installed apps - without having to thick-provision a virtual desktop for every user now makes the VDI user experience suitable for more users, e.g. faculty/staff at colleges and other types of knowledge workers in government, financial services, healthcare, and legal institutions. Our own fast-growing customer base as well as the success of the profile management vendors is indicative of this.

3.) True single image management solutions now exist that give VDI a massive OpEx reduction when compared to physical PCs. Example 1: IT managers can re-configure all the apps needed by a university lab in minutes with VDI and virtual desktop management software, compared to the weeks it could take with physical PCs and PC config software. Example 2: Rolling out 45 Windows hot fixes takes less than an hour with VDI and virtual desktop management software, compared to the mulitple days it would take with physical PCs and PC config software. And if one of those patches caused a corruption? With VDI, just roll it back and reboot the desktops. With physical PCs, near impossible.

4.) I don't count Terminal Services as VDI (that's presentation virtualization, not full VMs for every user), so I don't agree that VDI has been around for 10 years and is already mature. Which is why the combined innovations of the VDI ecosystem (VMware, Citrix, Cisco, Dell, HP, EMC, NetApp, new VDI management vendors like Unidesk) will have a strong, positive impact in 2011 on VDI adoption.

So my prediction is VDI will see marked growth and significant change in 2011. What do you think?